By: Mahmoud Gamal
Dubai – Mubasher: The performance of the UAE stock markets will be drawn by a group of factors in the second half of 2018, namely disclosures, the global trade war, interest rates, oil prices, the political tension between the US and North Korea, and market volatility.
Disclosures
The second six months of 2018 will see the disclosures of UAE-listed companies, which are the main indicator of the GCC country's economic strength, chief market analyst at Century Financial Brokers Vijay Valecha told Mubasher.
The global trade war
The trade war between the US and China, the world's two biggest economies, constitutes a grave danger facing the global markets that was enlarged as Chinese investments in the American technology companies are facing restrictions, Valecha said.
Also, US President Donald Trump announced that his country would impose taxes on imports from the European Union (EU), which would have a negative impact on European automakers’ shares, the analyst added.
Interest Rates
The US monetary policy will affect the UAE markets in the coming six months too, as the Federal Reserve is expected to announce changes on interest rates in its next meetings scheduled on 1 August, 26 September, 8 November, and 19 December, Valecha continued.
Oil Prices
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is almost the exclusive setter of oil prices, as OPEC members produce 40% of the global crude output, and will hold a meeting on 3 December to decide on oil production, Valecha remarked.
These meetings usually have a direct effect on oil prices, he said.
US-N. Korea relations
Valecha stressed that tensions between the US and North Korea, which were toned down following Trump-Kim summit in Singapore, can – if reignited – harm both global and Emirati markets.
Market volatility
In the same vein, Valecha forecast the twin UAE stock markets to extend the volatile trend in H2-18. He urged traders to be cautious and diversify their portfolios.
Translated by: Muhammad Khalid
