Mubasher: Global oil supplies rose by 0.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in June, to 96 mb/d, after outages curbed OPEC and non-OPEC supplies in May, while production was 750 kb/d below as higher OPEC output only partially offset non-OPEC declines, said the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its Oil Market Report (OMR) for July.
Non-OPEC supplies are set to decline by 0.9 mb/d in 2016, to 56.5 mb/d, before rising 0.2 mb/d in 2017, said the report.
Robust European demand supported Q2-16 global demand growth at around 1.4 mb/d year-on-year, momentum that will be roughly matched through the year as a whole.
A modest deceleration is forecasted in 2017, as growth eases to 1.3 mb/d taking average deliveries up to 97.4 mb/d.
Crude oil prices eased from an early June peak above $52/bbl, but traded within a $45-$50/bbl range. Growing uncertainty over the global economy and the related dollar strength weighed, but the downside was limited by further declines in US production and inventories.
OPEC crude output rose by 400 kb/d in June to an eight-year high of 33.21 mb/d, including newly re-joined Gabon while, Saudi Arabia ramped up to a near-record rate of 10.45 mb/d and Nigerian flows partially recovered. Middle East producers sustained record pumping rates, consolidating market share and pushing OPEC’s total output 510 kb/d above one year ago.
May global refinery throughput plunged by almost 1 mb/d from April, to 1.5 mb/d year-on-year, as heavy outages took their toll in many regions. This lowered the second quarter estimate for global refinery intake to 78.54 mb/d – the first year-on-year drop in three years. The forecast for third quarter throughput is more steady at 80.95 mb/d.
